Raila's handshakes and why he is likely to ditch President in the end

Various countries have unique political operators who wield influence despite defying common sense. In Kenya, Raila Amolo Odinga has a spell over his followers and other political leaders. He losses elections and still manages to convince the ‘winners’ that they desperately need him. He is Kenya’s “Handshake Man” and the latest victim of his mesmerising powers is President William Ruto.

Raila enticed four presidents to cave in to his political desires by making governance so difficult that each conceded powers. First was Daniel arap Moi whose dalliance with Raila could probably be traced to the 1982 failed coup. Although Moi and his team knew about the plot, they hesitated to stop it. The attempted coup led to strange political behaviours that allowed Moi to purge particular prima donnas, especially Charles Njonjo.

Raila, not held in normal police stations, was kept at the GSU headquarters, Ruaraka, where a strange event involving Police Commissioner Ben Gethi took place. Gethi travelled from his Nairobi CBD office to Ruaraka to ask suspect Raila to write a statement. In admitting his coup involvement, he claimed that his real aim was to stop Njonjo from mounting his own coup. Upon reading what Raila wrote, Gethi tore the statement. He lost his job that evening because of questioning Raila’s assertion. This way, Raila seemingly helped Moi to cook Njonjo’s political goose; the ‘Msaliti’ saga.

Following the 1997 election, Moi and Raila entered an anti-Mwai Kibaki ‘koperesen’, the first open “handshake” out of which both men expected political benefits. They seemingly were to marshal their forces in Parliament to repeal the two-term limit that Moi had imposed in 1992 when he thought he might lose. They also were to create a post of none elected Prime Minister for Raila. Although Raila took JJ Kamotho’s job as Kanu secretary general, Simeon Nyachae’s resistance within Kanu scuttled the plan and with neither Moi nor Raila getting his wish, they fell apart. Raila joined Nyachae’s side to receive campaign funding. When Moi endorsed Uhuru Kenyatta for president, slighted Raila dumped Nyachae and his MoU and then led a Kanu walkout into Kibaki’s winning NAK side.     

The second handshake was with Kibaki after the 2007/2008 election crisis. Following Kibaki’s narrow victory, big powers like Britain intervened to demand power sharing and also led to the ICC indicting Uhuru and William Ruto. Raila became virtual ‘co-president’ as Prime Minister, helped to craft the 2010 Constitution, and was set to become president. Although Raila seemingly had the backing of Western powers, he lost the 2013 election to the ‘anti-imperialist’ team of UhuRuto.

The third ‘handshake’, following Raila’s two 2017 election losses, was in 2018. He made governance so difficult that Uhuru gave him ‘the system’. Believing that ‘the system’ would make him the ‘Fifth’, Raila defeated himself in 2022 by neglecting such election fundamentals as having agents and his followers voting. His supposed Nyanza followers reportedly started celebrating without voting. Raila’s neglects made Ruto president in 2022 election and Raila once again cried foul.

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Ruto’s internal weaknesses led to Raila’s fourth handshake. His ill thought-out economic, political, and diplomatic policies seemingly compromised Kenya’s sovereignty. The negative taxing policies led to the Gen Z uprising which enabled Ruto to accommodate Raila and ostracise his deputy Rigathi Gachagua. Baptised broad-based government, their ‘handshake’ allows Raila to ‘eat’ while craving for public adulation. He still is defensive about his dalliance with Ruto.

Raila and Ruto have similar attributes. They have no permanent political friends, dump allies without blinking, and will turn on each other. Raila, with a dwindling fanatical following, will ditch Ruto first in order to regain lost standing with the public. The possibility of another ‘handshake’ drives some to wits to suggest imposing ‘constitutional’ limits to the number of political ‘handshakes’ that one can enter. Raila losses elections, creates ungovernability, and benefits from being the ‘handshake man.’