Israel strikes Gaza to pressure Hamas, create diversion for Netahyahu

Israel likely aims to pressure Palestinian militant group Hamas into accepting its truce terms with its strikes on Gaza on Tuesday, but the escalation could also serve Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu domestically, analysts say.

The pre-dawn Israeli strikes -- by far the deadliest since a ceasefire came into effect on January 19 -- killed more than 400 people, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run Gaza Strip.

Hamas said those killed included the head of its government in Gaza and other officials.

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The January ceasefire largely halted more than 15 months of war sparked by the Islamist group's deadly October 7, 2023, attack on Israel.

The truce's first phase saw the return of 33 Israeli hostages, including some who were deceased, in exchange for about 1,800 Palestinians in Israeli custody, and enabled the entry of aid into the besieged territory.

But it expired on March 1 without agreement on what a second phase would look like.

Hamas has consistently demanded negotiations for a second phase to lead to a lasting ceasefire.

Israel, meanwhile, has sought to extend the first phase until mid-April under a US-backed plan, cutting off aid and electricity to Gaza over the deadlock in negotiations.

Mairav Zonszein, senior Israel analyst at the International Crisis Group, said it was clear Netanyahu had "wanted to go back to some kind of non-ceasefire" in Gaza.

The Israeli prime minister had shown his intention by not withdrawing Israeli troops as planned under the first phase, she said.

David Khalfa, of the French Jean Jaures Foundation, said the intensified bombardment aimed to force Hamas to accept a proposal put forward by US envoy Steve Witkoff "to extend the first phase, including the possibility of a permanent ceasefire" and free more hostages.

A US State Department spokesperson said on Tuesday that Hamas bore "total responsibility" for Israel's renewed air strikes, accusing the group of rejecting a "compelling deal".

Hamas has not responded militarily so far, and accused Israel of attempting to force it to "surrender".

Hugh Lovatt, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said "Hamas does not want to be dragged into another war".

Khalfa said Hamas fighters would likely "drop their weapons, hide them... then disappear as much as possibly, blend into the local population".

They could "carry out ambushes if Israel sends in ground troops", he added.

Domestic woes

But the air strikes also come as Netanyahu faces a raft of political crises at home.

His ruling coalition was weakened after far-right minister Itamar Ben Gvir's party quit in protest over the January truce.

The prime minister is on trial for corruption charges, which he denies.

And his bid to dismiss the head of the Shin Bet internal security agency has threatened to plunge Israel into deep political crisis.

Netanyahu has cited an "ongoing lack of trust" as the reason for moving to sack Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, whose agency has been accused of failing to prevent the 2023 attack.

The Shin Bet has also been investigating some of Netanyahu's aides for allegedly receiving payments from Qatar, according to Israeli media reports.

"The minute Israel starts firing in Gaza, all those things become quieter and less urgent," Zonszein said.

Lovatt said "Israel is resuming its war against Gaza because Netanyahu sees it as being in his political interest."

It seems to have, in part, paid off.

With a budget vote approaching at the end of the month, Ben Gvir's party returned to government on Tuesday, hours after the wave of strikes began.

What comes next "depends on... if the US is trying to somehow get back to the ceasefire and hostage release after letting Israel flex some muscle," Zonszein said.

Lovatt said continued air strikes could kill "hundreds or even thousands of Palestinians, and perhaps even Israeli hostages".

But even then, he said, "Hamas will still not be destroyed or ejected from Gaza as Israel claims to want."